Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun
The Footlab model makes Samsunspor the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Kasımpaşa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Samsunspor starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (2,036 vs 1,920).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Samsunspor have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Kasımpaşa have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 2-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Göztepe(home) | 3-3 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Trabzonspor(home) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Samsunspor(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Samsunspor win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Kasımpaşa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kasımpaşa 3-0 Samsunspor | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Kasımpaşa 0-1 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Samsunspor 0-0 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Samsunspor 0-2 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Kasımpaşa 1-4 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Kasımpaşa 1-0 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Samsunspor score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kasımpaşa score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Kasımpaşa | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Samsunspor sit 3rd in Süper Lig (4 points from 2 matches) and Kasımpaşa sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Samsunspor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?
- The Footlab model makes Samsunspor the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Kasımpaşa.
- Where and when is Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa played?
- Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa is played on March 14, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.