Match

Gavorrano vs Progresso: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Romeo Malservisi, Bagno di Gavorrano

GavorranoProgresso

The Footlab AI model makes Gavorrano the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Progresso. The most likely score is 1-1. If Gavorrano wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,761 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Gavorrano vs Progresso?

On Elo ratings, Gavorrano has 1,699 points and Progresso 1,628.

50%28%22%
Gavorrano winDrawProgresso win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Gavorrano vs Progresso

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Gavorrano

4-3-3
  1. 9Cristian Carlo Brega
  2. 19R. Barbuti
  3. 11M. Malotti
  1. 8Loris Damonte
  2. 25Leandro Vitiello
  3. 21F. Conti
  1. 3P. Ropolo
  2. 23D. Mori
  3. 6D. Marchetti
  4. 16G. Favale
  1. 1W. Falcone

Progresso

Not enough data to predict the Progresso lineup.

Computed on October 18, 2026 at 10:10 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gavorrano have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Progresso have 4, 2 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Gavorrano
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Prato(home)1-1Serie D - Girone E
Oct 11, 2026Terranuova Traiana(home)1-1Serie D - Girone E
Oct 4, 2026Flaminia(away)1-1Serie D - Girone E
Sep 27, 2026Sasso Marconi Zola(home)2-1Serie D - Girone E
Sep 20, 2026San Donato Tavarnelle(away)2-0Serie D - Girone E
Progresso
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Robur Siena(home)0-1Serie D - Girone E
Oct 4, 2026Rondinella(away)1-2Serie D - Girone E
Sep 27, 2026Montevarchi Calcio(away)0-2Serie D - Girone E
Sep 20, 2026Seravezza(home)0-3Serie D - Girone E
Sep 16, 2026Lucchese(away)0-5Serie D - Girone E

How many goals should we expect?

Gavorrano score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Gavorrano1.40.9410/154/15
Progresso1.01.718/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Gavorrano sit 2nd in Serie D - Girone E (16 points from 8 matches) and Progresso sit 17th (3 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Gavorrano844011516
17Progresso71064163

A question about Gavorrano vs Progresso?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Gavorrano vs Progresso?
The Footlab AI model makes Gavorrano the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Progresso.
Where and when is Gavorrano vs Progresso played?
Gavorrano vs Progresso is played on November 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Romeo Malservisi, in the Serie D - Girone E.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Gavorrano and Progresso

Ready to know everything about football?