San Donato Tavarnelle vs Progresso: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 30Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Pianigiani, Tavarnelle Val di Pesa
The Footlab model makes San Donato Tavarnelle the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Progresso. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Donato Tavarnelle vs Progresso?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate San Donato Tavarnelle (1,665) and Progresso (1,681).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Donato Tavarnelle have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Progresso have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sangiovannese(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Grosseto(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sasso Marconi Zola(home) | 4-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Lentigione(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Correggese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Tuttocuoio(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
How many goals should we expect?
San Donato Tavarnelle score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Donato Tavarnelle | 1.0 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Progresso | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30 | 35 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Progresso?
- The Footlab model makes San Donato Tavarnelle the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Progresso.
- Where and when is San Donato Tavarnelle vs Progresso played?
- San Donato Tavarnelle vs Progresso is played on April 4, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Pianigiani, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.