Progresso vs Gavorrano: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Progresso, Castel Maggiore
The Footlab AI model makes Progresso the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Gavorrano. The most likely score is 1-1. If Progresso wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Progresso vs Gavorrano?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Progresso (1,613) and Gavorrano (1,683).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Progresso vs Gavorrano
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Progresso
Not enough data to predict the Progresso lineup.
Gavorrano
4-3-3- 9Cristian Carlo Brega
- 19R. Barbuti
- 11M. Malotti
- 8Loris Damonte
- 25Leandro Vitiello
- 21F. Conti
- 3P. Ropolo
- 23D. Mori
- 6D. Marchetti
- 16G. Favale
- 1W. Falcone
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:32 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progresso have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Gavorrano have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Rondinella(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lucchese(away) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Terranuova Traiana(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Flaminia(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sasso Marconi Zola(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
How many goals should we expect?
Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gavorrano score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresso | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Gavorrano | 1.3 | 0.8 | 5 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Progresso sit 16th in Serie D - Girone E (3 points from 6 matches) and Gavorrano sit 1st (14 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavorrano | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 14 |
| 16 | Progresso | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
A question about Progresso vs Gavorrano?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Progresso vs Gavorrano?
- The Footlab AI model makes Progresso the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Gavorrano.
- Where and when is Progresso vs Gavorrano played?
- Progresso vs Gavorrano is played on April 11, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Progresso, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 11, 2027TernanavsSan Donato Tavarnelle
- Apr 11, 2027LucchesevsMezzolara
- Apr 11, 2027Robur SienavsFlaminia
- Apr 11, 2027SeravezzavsGhivizzano Borgo Mozzano
- Apr 11, 2027GrassinavsSasso Marconi Zola
- Apr 11, 2027Montevarchi CalciovsPrato
- Apr 11, 2027Tau AltopasciovsScandicci
- Apr 11, 2027RondinellavsTerranuova Traiana