San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 40Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Francisco Boga, Burzaco, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Excursionistas the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for San Martín Burzaco. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas?
Excursionistas starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,753 vs 1,620).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Martín Burzaco have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Excursionistas have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Defensores Unidos(away) | 0-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Comunicaciones(home) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dock Sud(away) | 1-4 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Deportivo Merlo(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Deportivo Camioneros(away) | 0-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Talleres Remedios(away) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Laferrere(home) | 5-3 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brown DE Adrogue(away) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Deportivo Armenio(home) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Flandria(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 San Martín Burzaco win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Excursionistas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Excursionistas 2-0 San Martín Burzaco | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Excursionistas 4-2 San Martín Burzaco | Primera B Metropolitana |
| May 3, 2025 | San Martín Burzaco 0-1 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Excursionistas 4-2 San Martín Burzaco | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Mar 30, 2024 | San Martín Burzaco 1-1 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Oct 14, 2023 | Excursionistas 1-0 San Martín Burzaco | Primera C |
Last archived meeting: Excursionistas vs San Martín Burzaco on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Martín Burzaco score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Excursionistas score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín Burzaco | 0.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Excursionistas | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Martín Burzaco sit 10th in Primera B Metropolitana (28 points from 20 matches) and Excursionistas sit 1st (41 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 11 | 41 |
| 1 | Excursionistas | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 47 | 24 | 59 |
| 10 | San Martín Burzaco | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 28 |
| 14 | San Martín Burzaco | 31 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 28 | 32 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas?
- The Footlab model makes Excursionistas the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for San Martín Burzaco.
- Where and when is San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas played?
- San Martín Burzaco vs Excursionistas is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Francisco Boga, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Defensores UnidosvsDeportivo Armenio
- Oct 17, 2026Real PilarvsItuzaingó
- Oct 17, 2026Dock SudvsDeportivo Laferrere
- Oct 17, 2026Deportivo CamionerosvsArgentino de Merlo
- Oct 17, 2026ComunicacionesvsBrown DE Adrogue
- Oct 17, 2026Argentino QuilmesvsFlandria
- Oct 17, 2026Villa San CarlosvsVilla Dalmine
- Oct 17, 2026Deportivo MerlovsTalleres Remedios