San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 32Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Ciudadela, San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán
The Footlab model makes San Martin Tucuman the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Gimnasia Y Tiro. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate San Martin Tucuman (1,786) and Gimnasia Y Tiro (1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Martin Tucuman have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Gimnasia Y Tiro have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(away) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo Madryn(home) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Martin S.J.(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(away) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Temperley(home) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | San Martin S.J.(away) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Central Norte(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Almagro(away) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Temperley(away) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 San Martin Tucuman win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Gimnasia Y Tiro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Gimnasia Y Tiro 1-0 San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Gimnasia Y Tiro 2-0 San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 23, 2025 | San Martin Tucuman 1-0 Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional |
| Oct 3, 2015 | San Martin Tucuman 0-2 Gimnasia Y Tiro | Torneo Federal A |
| Jun 7, 2015 | San Martin Tucuman 3-0 Gimnasia Y Tiro | Torneo Federal A |
| Apr 5, 2015 | Gimnasia Y Tiro 0-2 San Martin Tucuman | Torneo Federal A |
Last archived meeting: Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Martin Tucuman score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Gimnasia Y Tiro score 1.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martin Tucuman | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Martin Tucuman sit 10th in Primera Nacional (35 points from 26 matches) and Gimnasia Y Tiro sit 7th (38 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 25 | 38 |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 23 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro?
- The Footlab model makes San Martin Tucuman the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 26% for Gimnasia Y Tiro.
- Where and when is San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro played?
- San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Ciudadela, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.