Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Don León Kolbovski, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Atlanta the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for San Martin Tucuman. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Atlanta (1,783) and San Martin Tucuman (1,786).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlanta have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; San Martin Tucuman have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(away) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ferro Carril Oeste(away) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Temperley(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Deportivo Maipu(away) | 2-4 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Almagro(home) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(away) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo Madryn(home) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Martin S.J.(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(away) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Temperley(home) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atlanta win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 San Martin Tucuman win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | San Martin Tucuman 0-1 Atlanta | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 14, 2025 | San Martin Tucuman 4-0 Atlanta | Primera Nacional |
| May 11, 2025 | Atlanta 3-1 San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 23, 2022 | San Martin Tucuman 0-0 Atlanta | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 18, 2021 | San Martin Tucuman 3-0 Atlanta | Primera Nacional |
| Apr 4, 2021 | Atlanta 2-1 San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: San Martin Tucuman vs Atlanta on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlanta score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; San Martin Tucuman score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| San Martin Tucuman | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlanta sit 4th in Primera Nacional (42 points from 25 matches) and San Martin Tucuman sit 9th (35 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atlanta | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 31 | 25 | 42 |
| 9 | San Martin Tucuman | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 23 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman?
- The Footlab model makes Atlanta the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for San Martin Tucuman.
- Where and when is Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman played?
- Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Don León Kolbovski, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 3, 2026TemperleyvsNueva Chicago
- Oct 3, 2026All BoysvsGodoy Cruz
- Oct 3, 2026Atletico MitrevsColon Santa Fe
- Oct 3, 2026Gimnasia JujuyvsGimnasia Y Tiro
- Oct 3, 2026QuilmesvsAgropecuario
- Oct 3, 2026AlmagrovsChacarita Juniors
- Oct 3, 2026Defensores De BelgranovsAcassuso
- Oct 3, 2026PatronatovsClub Atlético Güemes