San Martín vs Mosconia: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Florán, San Martín del Rey Aurelio
The Footlab model makes Mosconia the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for San Martín. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Martín vs Mosconia?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate San Martín (1,725) and Mosconia (1,776).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Martín have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Mosconia have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Llanes(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | L'Entregu(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Covadonga(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 10, 2026 | Navarro(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 San Martín win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Mosconia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | San Martín 0-1 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Mosconia 1-1 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Mosconia 2-0 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | San Martín 0-1 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 6, 2022 | San Martín 3-0 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2021 | Mosconia 1-2 San Martín | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: San Martín vs Mosconia on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Martín score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mosconia score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín | 0.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Mosconia | 0.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Martín sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (51 points from 34 matches) and Mosconia sit 5th (56 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mosconia | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 27 | 56 |
| 6 | San Martín | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Martín vs Mosconia?
- The Footlab model makes Mosconia the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for San Martín.
- Where and when is San Martín vs Mosconia played?
- San Martín vs Mosconia is played on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Florán, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.