Arouca vs Sporting CP: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sporting CP wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Sporting CP?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,496 Elo points against 2,156, a 340-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arouca vs Sporting CP
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Sporting CP
4-3-3- 10Geny Catamo
- 19N. Irankunda
- 97L. Suárez
- 5Sergi Altimira
- 77I. Doumbia
- 4S. Andersen
- 25Gonçalo Inácio
- 22Iván Fresneda
- 20M. Araújo
- 72Eduardo Quaresma
- 1Rui Silva
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 07:24 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Sporting CP have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Arouca wins, 2 draws, 4 Sporting CP wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Arouca 1-2 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Sporting CP 6-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Sporting CP 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Arouca 0-3 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Arouca 0-3 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sporting CP vs Arouca on Sep 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting CP score 2.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Sporting CP | 2.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (14 points from 8 matches) and Sporting CP sit 3rd (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
A question about Arouca vs Sporting CP?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Sporting CP?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Arouca.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Sporting CP played?
- Arouca vs Sporting CP is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.