Santa Cruz vs Águilas II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Águilas II the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Santa Cruz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Cruz vs Águilas II?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Santa Cruz (1,763) and Águilas II (1,824).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Cruz have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Águilas II have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Cartagena LU II(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Real Murcia II(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Yeclano II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | SFC Minerva(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | El Palmar(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Balsicas Atlético(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Unión Molinense(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Santa Cruz win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Águilas II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | Santa Cruz 2-1 Águilas II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Águilas II 0-3 Santa Cruz | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Santa Cruz vs Águilas II on Apr 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Cruz score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Águilas II score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Águilas II | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Cruz sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (51 points from 34 matches) and Águilas II sit 7th (52 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Águilas II | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 47 | 42 | 52 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 37 | 34 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Cruz vs Águilas II?
- The Footlab model makes Águilas II the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Santa Cruz.
- Where and when is Santa Cruz vs Águilas II played?
- Santa Cruz vs Águilas II is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 27, 2026El PalmarvsAtlético Pulpileño
- Sep 27, 2026Los GarresvsCartagena LU II
- Sep 27, 2026SFC MinervavsOlímpico Totana
- Sep 27, 2026UCAM Murcia IIvsSan Javier
- Sep 27, 2026Bala AzulvsAlcantarilla
- Sep 27, 2026Unión MolinensevsMazarrón FC
- Sep 27, 2026AlgarvsBalsicas Atlético
- Sep 27, 2026Bullas DeportivovsSantomera