Match

Santa Fe vs Once Caldas: prediction and stats

Copa ColombiaQuarter-finalsKick-off on October 21, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín, Bogotá, D.C.

Santa FeOnce Caldas

The Footlab AI model makes Santa Fe the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Once Caldas. The most likely score is 1-1. If Santa Fe wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,608 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Santa Fe vs Once Caldas?

A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Santa Fe (1,844) and Once Caldas (1,761).

45%26%29%
Santa Fe winDrawOnce Caldas win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Santa Fe vs Once Caldas

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Santa Fe

4-4-1-1
  1. 19N. Bustos
  1. 16D. Torres
  2. 10A. Zapata
  3. 14L. Palacios
  4. 6K. Toscano
  5. 9F. Fagúndez
  1. 13H. Palacios
  2. 3V. Moreno
  3. 32C. Mafla
  4. 15I. Scarpeta
  1. 12W. Asprilla

Once Caldas

4-2-3-1
  1. 14J. Zapata
  1. 20A. Roa
  2. 7M. Barrios
  3. 9Pipe Gómez
  4. 42J. Quiñónes
  5. 23A. Colorado
  1. 22J. Cuesta
  2. 30D. Londoño
  3. 2J. Cardona
  4. 3A. Correa
  1. 99J. Parra

Computed on October 18, 2026 at 02:17 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Fe have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; Once Caldas have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Santa Fe
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Fortaleza FC(home)2-2Copa Colombia
Oct 6, 2026Independiente Medellin(away)1-0Primera A
Sep 29, 2026Deportivo Pereira(away)2-1Primera A
Sep 25, 2026Union Magdalena(away)1-1Copa Colombia
Sep 23, 2026Deportivo Cali(home)0-1Primera A
Once Caldas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Llaneros(home)1-0Primera A
Oct 4, 2026Internacional de Bogota(away)1-1Primera A
Sep 26, 2026Bucaramanga(home)1-3Primera A
Sep 20, 2026Deportivo Pasto(away)0-1Primera A
Sep 16, 2026Deportes Tolima(home)1-0Primera A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Santa Fe wins, 2 draws, 1 Once Caldas win.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 3, 2026Santa Fe 2-2 Once CaldasPrimera A
Jan 26, 2026Once Caldas 1-1 Santa FePrimera A
Sep 2, 2025Santa Fe 1-2 Once CaldasPrimera A
Jun 16, 2025Santa Fe 1-0 Once CaldasPrimera A
Jun 5, 2025Once Caldas 1-2 Santa FePrimera A
Mar 16, 2025Once Caldas 0-1 Santa FePrimera A

Last archived meeting: Santa Fe vs Once Caldas on Aug 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Santa Fe score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Once Caldas score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Santa Fe1.20.958/155/15
Once Caldas1.31.148/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Santa Fe vs Once Caldas?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Santa Fe vs Once Caldas?
The Footlab AI model makes Santa Fe the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Once Caldas.
Where and when is Santa Fe vs Once Caldas played?
Santa Fe vs Once Caldas is played on October 21, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín, in the Copa Colombia.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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