Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo: prediction and stats
Torneo Federal ALosers Stage - 6Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal General San Martín de Tandil, Tandil, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Santamarina the favourite at 42%, against 39% for a draw and 19% for Circulo Deportivo. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Santamarina (1,589) and Circulo Deportivo (1,587).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santamarina have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Circulo Deportivo have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guillermo Brown(away) | 0-1 | Torneo Federal A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Fundacion Amigos(home) | 2-0 | Torneo Federal A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Germinal de Rawson(away) | 1-5 | Torneo Federal A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | San Martín Mendoza(home) | 0-1 | Torneo Federal A |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sol de Mayo(away) | 0-1 | Torneo Federal A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Costa Brava(home) | 0-1 | Torneo Federal A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Juventud Unida Univ.(away) | 0-0 | Torneo Federal A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo Rincon(away) | 0-0 | Torneo Federal A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guillermo Brown(home) | 1-0 | Torneo Federal A |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Fundacion Amigos(away) | 0-1 | Torneo Federal A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Santamarina win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Circulo Deportivo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Circulo Deportivo 0-0 Santamarina | Torneo Federal A |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Santamarina 4-0 Circulo Deportivo | Torneo Federal A |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Circulo Deportivo 1-0 Santamarina | Torneo Federal A |
| May 24, 2025 | Santamarina 2-0 Circulo Deportivo | Torneo Federal A |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Circulo Deportivo 2-2 Santamarina | Torneo Federal A |
| Jul 7, 2024 | Circulo Deportivo 1-3 Santamarina | Torneo Federal A |
Last archived meeting: Circulo Deportivo vs Santamarina on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santamarina score 0.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Circulo Deportivo score 0.4 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 16% probability of over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santamarina | 0.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 2/15 | 3/15 |
| Circulo Deportivo | 0.4 | 0.5 | 7 | 3/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santamarina sit 7th in Torneo Federal A (12 points from 12 matches) and Circulo Deportivo sit 9th (8 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Santamarina | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 12 |
| 9 | Circulo Deportivo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 8 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo?
- The Footlab model makes Santamarina the favourite at 42%, against 39% for a draw and 19% for Circulo Deportivo.
- Where and when is Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo played?
- Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal General San Martín de Tandil, in the Torneo Federal A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 16% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 30, 2026Sol de MayovsGuillermo Brown
- Aug 30, 2026Sportivo Las ParejasvsSarmiento Resistencia
- Aug 30, 2026Gimnasia ConcepciónvsIndependiente De Chivilcoy
- Aug 30, 2026Germinal de RawsonvsDeportivo Rincon
- Aug 30, 2026El LinqueñovsAtletico Escobar
- Aug 30, 2026San Martín MendozavsFundacion Amigos
- Aug 30, 2026Costa BravavsJuventud Unida Univ.
- Aug 30, 2026Tucuman CentralvsBoca Unidos