Match

Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo: prediction and stats

Torneo Federal ALosers Stage - 6Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal General San Martín de Tandil, Tandil, Provincia de Buenos Aires

SantamarinaCirculo Deportivo

The Footlab model makes Santamarina the favourite at 42%, against 39% for a draw and 19% for Circulo Deportivo. The most likely score is 0-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo?

A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Santamarina (1,589) and Circulo Deportivo (1,587).

Santamarina win42 %
Draw39 %
Circulo Deportivo win19 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santamarina have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Circulo Deportivo have 2, 8 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Santamarina
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026Guillermo Brown(away)0-1Torneo Federal A
Aug 17, 2026Fundacion Amigos(home)2-0Torneo Federal A
Aug 12, 2026Germinal de Rawson(away)1-5Torneo Federal A
Aug 8, 2026San Martín Mendoza(home)0-1Torneo Federal A
Aug 2, 2026Sol de Mayo(away)0-1Torneo Federal A
Circulo Deportivo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Costa Brava(home)0-1Torneo Federal A
Aug 16, 2026Juventud Unida Univ.(away)0-0Torneo Federal A
Aug 12, 2026Deportivo Rincon(away)0-0Torneo Federal A
Aug 8, 2026Guillermo Brown(home)1-0Torneo Federal A
Aug 2, 2026Fundacion Amigos(away)0-1Torneo Federal A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Santamarina win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Circulo Deportivo win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 14, 2026Circulo Deportivo 0-0 SantamarinaTorneo Federal A
Apr 11, 2026Santamarina 4-0 Circulo DeportivoTorneo Federal A
Jul 26, 2025Circulo Deportivo 1-0 SantamarinaTorneo Federal A
May 24, 2025Santamarina 2-0 Circulo DeportivoTorneo Federal A
Mar 19, 2025Circulo Deportivo 2-2 SantamarinaTorneo Federal A
Jul 7, 2024Circulo Deportivo 1-3 SantamarinaTorneo Federal A

Last archived meeting: Circulo Deportivo vs Santamarina on Jun 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Santamarina score 0.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Circulo Deportivo score 0.4 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 16% probability of over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Santamarina0.41.452/153/15
Circulo Deportivo0.40.573/151/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Santamarina sit 7th in Torneo Federal A (12 points from 12 matches) and Circulo Deportivo sit 9th (8 points from 11 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Santamarina1226491212
9Circulo Deportivo111553118
36Santamarina1627791713
37Circulo Deportivo1627781613

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo?
The Footlab model makes Santamarina the favourite at 42%, against 39% for a draw and 19% for Circulo Deportivo.
Where and when is Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo played?
Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal General San Martín de Tandil, in the Torneo Federal A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 16% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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