Match

Atletico-MG vs Gremio: prediction and stats

Copa Do BrasilSemi-finalsKick-off on November 7, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais

Atletico-MGGremio

The Footlab AI model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Gremio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico-MG wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,509 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atletico-MG vs Gremio?

On Elo ratings, Atletico-MG has 1,823 points and Gremio 1,784.

52%26%22%
Atletico-MG winDrawGremio win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Atletico-MG vs Gremio

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Atletico-MG

4-1-4-1
  1. 30Victor Hugo
  1. 21A. Franco
  2. 15K. Castaño
  3. 8Maycon
  4. 11Bernard
  5. 28T. Cuello
  1. 6Renan Lodi
  2. 13Lyanco
  3. 14Vitor Hugo
  4. 3Léo Duarte
  1. 1Gabriel Delfim

Gremio

3-4-2-1
  1. 95Carlos Vinícius
  1. 20M. Villasanti
  2. 9F. Amuzu
  3. 23Marlon
  4. 8E. Noriega
  5. 18João Pedro
  6. 99J. Enamorado
  1. 82Wallace
  2. 6Gustavo Martins
  3. 2F. Balbuena
  1. 1Weverton

Computed on November 4, 2026 at 09:35 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico-MG have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Gremio have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atletico-MG
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Gremio(away)0-2Copa Do Brasil
Oct 29, 2026Cruzeiro(home)0-1Serie A
Oct 26, 2026Flamengo(away)2-3Serie A
Oct 21, 2026Atletico Torque(away)0-2CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Oct 17, 2026Coritiba(home)1-0Serie A
Gremio
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Atletico-MG(home)2-0Copa Do Brasil
Oct 30, 2026Atletico Paranaense(home)2-0Serie A
Oct 26, 2026Coritiba(away)1-0Serie A
Oct 18, 2026Cruzeiro(home)2-4Serie A
Oct 11, 2026Internacional(home)1-1Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico-MG wins, 0 draws, 4 Gremio wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Gremio 2-0 Atletico-MGCopa Do Brasil
Aug 16, 2026Atletico-MG 3-0 GremioSerie A
Feb 26, 2026Gremio 2-1 Atletico-MGSerie A
Aug 17, 2025Atletico-MG 1-3 GremioSerie A
Mar 29, 2025Gremio 2-1 Atletico-MGSerie A
Oct 9, 2024Atletico-MG 2-1 GremioSerie A

Last archived meeting: Gremio vs Atletico-MG on Nov 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atletico-MG score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gremio score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Atletico-MG1.41.337/157/15
Gremio1.21.257/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Atletico-MG vs Gremio?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Gremio.
Where and when is Atletico-MG vs Gremio played?
Atletico-MG vs Gremio is played on November 7, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena MRV, in the Copa Do Brasil.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Atletico-MG and Gremio

Ready to know everything about football?