Match

Sarasota Paradise vs Naples: prediction and stats

USL League OneGroup StageKick-off on October 21, 2026 at 10:30 PM (UTC)Cleland Stadium at Ihrig Feild at Sarasota High, Sarasota, Florida

Sarasota ParadiseNaples

The Footlab AI model makes Sarasota Paradise the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Naples. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sarasota Paradise wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?

A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Sarasota Paradise (1,776) and Naples (1,712).

48%26%26%
Sarasota Paradise winDrawNaples win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Sarasota Paradise vs Naples

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Sarasota Paradise

4-3-3
  1. 32E. Terzaghi
  2. 27C. O'Dwyer
  3. 19G. McLaughlin
  1. 17J. Bolanos
  2. 16A. Rodriguez
  3. 8A. Walker
  1. 36Anderson Rosa
  2. 5A. Sögaard
  3. 24Mukisa Kiingi
  4. 4D. Watters
  1. 1A. Sutton

Naples

4-3-3
  1. 9R. Miglietti
  2. 45N. Likulia
  3. 7T. Gray
  1. 21Torrellas
  2. 6O. Ciss
  3. 8J. Osorio
  1. 4H. Uderitz
  2. 3J. Cisneros
  3. 20J. Yearwood
  4. 14K. O'Connor
  1. 1E. Delgado

Computed on October 21, 2026 at 04:23 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarasota Paradise have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Naples have 7, 2 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sarasota Paradise
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Fort Wayne(away)3-1USL League One
Oct 10, 2026Richmond Kickers(home)3-2USL League One
Oct 3, 2026Charlotte Independence(home)2-3USL League One
Sep 26, 2026Portland Hearts of Pine(away)4-1USL League One
Sep 19, 2026Greenville Triumph(home)6-0USL League One
Naples
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Corpus Christi(away)1-0USL League One
Oct 7, 2026Richmond Kickers(home)2-0USL League One
Oct 3, 2026NY Cosmos(home)2-1USL League One
Sep 26, 2026Chattanooga Red Wolves(home)1-0USL League One
Sep 19, 2026Fort Wayne(away)2-2USL League One

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Sarasota Paradise win, 0 draws, 2 Naples wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 6, 2026Naples 0-2 Sarasota ParadiseUSL League One Cup
Apr 11, 2026Naples 2-0 Sarasota ParadiseUSL League One
Mar 18, 2025Sarasota Paradise 1-2 NaplesUS Open Cup

Last archived meeting: Naples vs Sarasota Paradise on Jun 6, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Sarasota Paradise score 2.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Naples score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Sarasota Paradise2.01.7212/1511/15
Naples1.11.356/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Sarasota Paradise sit 11th in USL League One (39 points from 30 matches) and Naples sit 9th (40 points from 30 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
9Naples3012414354440
11Sarasota Paradise3011613454639

A question about Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?
The Footlab AI model makes Sarasota Paradise the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Naples.
Where and when is Sarasota Paradise vs Naples played?
Sarasota Paradise vs Naples is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:30 PM (UTC) at Cleland Stadium at Ihrig Feild at Sarasota High, in the USL League One.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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