Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 20Kick-off on September 7, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg
The Footlab model makes Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Valerenga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Sarpsborg 08 FF (1,966) and Valerenga (1,942).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarpsborg 08 FF have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Valerenga have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sparta Sarpsborg(away) | 2-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sandefjord(home) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Viking(away) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Molde(away) | 3-3 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ham-Kam(home) | 1-0 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Christiania BK(away) | 7-2 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Aalesund(away) | 5-5 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ham-Kam(home) | 0-3 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Brann(away) | 3-2 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Valerenga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Valerenga 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Valerenga 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Valerenga | Eliteserien |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Valerenga 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Valerenga 5-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 Valerenga | Eliteserien |
Last archived meeting: Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sarpsborg 08 FF score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Valerenga score 2.1 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Valerenga | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sarpsborg 08 FF sit 9th in Eliteserien (22 points from 17 matches) and Valerenga sit 11th (21 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 22 |
| 11 | Valerenga | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 34 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
- The Footlab model makes Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Valerenga.
- Where and when is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga played?
- Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga is played on September 7, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Sarpsborg Stadion, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.