Sassuolo vs Lazio: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia
The Footlab model makes Lazio the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Sassuolo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Lazio?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Sassuolo (2,015) and Lazio (2,084).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sassuolo have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Lazio have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cesena(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Augsburg(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Folgore Caratese(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mantova(home) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ostia Mare(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ascoli(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sassuolo win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Lazio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | Lazio 2-1 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Sassuolo 1-0 Lazio | Serie A |
| May 26, 2024 | Lazio 1-1 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Sassuolo 0-2 Lazio | Serie A |
| May 3, 2023 | Lazio 2-0 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| Jan 15, 2023 | Sassuolo 0-2 Lazio | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Sassuolo score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Lazio score 2.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Lazio | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sassuolo vs Lazio?
- The Footlab model makes Lazio the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Sassuolo.
- Where and when is Sassuolo vs Lazio played?
- Sassuolo vs Lazio is played on October 28, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.