Lazio vs Atalanta: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico, Roma
The Footlab model makes Atalanta the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Lazio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lazio vs Atalanta?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Lazio (2,064) and Atalanta (2,133).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lazio have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Atalanta have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mantova(home) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ostia Mare(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ascoli(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sassuolo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Lazio win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Atalanta win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Atalanta 1-1 Lazio | Coppa Italia |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Lazio 2-2 Atalanta | Coppa Italia |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Lazio 0-2 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Atalanta 0-0 Lazio | Serie A |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Atalanta 0-1 Lazio | Serie A |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Lazio 1-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Lazio score 2.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Atalanta score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Atalanta | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lazio vs Atalanta?
- The Footlab model makes Atalanta the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Lazio.
- Where and when is Lazio vs Atalanta played?
- Lazio vs Atalanta is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.