SC Braga vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga
The Footlab AI model makes SC Braga the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win SC Braga vs Arouca?
SC Braga starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (2,315 vs 2,150).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for SC Braga vs Arouca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
SC Braga
3-4-3- 10Pau Victor
- 21Ricardo Horta
- 11Gabriel Silva
- 8João Moutinho
- 2Víctor Gómez
- 29J. Gorby
- 23D. Huseinbašić
- 6Vitor Carvalho
- 44A. Bajrami
- 22Sergio Barcia
- 31Bernardo Fontes
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:56 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SC Braga have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Arouca have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 SC Braga wins, 0 draws, 1 Arouca win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | SC Braga 1-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Arouca 0-4 SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | SC Braga 2-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Arouca 1-2 SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 6, 2024 | SC Braga 0-3 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Arouca 0-1 SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
SC Braga score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | 1.3 | 0.8 | 9 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
SC Braga sit 9th in Primeira Liga (11 points from 7 matches) and Arouca sit 5th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 11 |
A question about SC Braga vs Arouca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for SC Braga vs Arouca?
- The Footlab AI model makes SC Braga the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Arouca.
- Where and when is SC Braga vs Arouca played?
- SC Braga vs Arouca is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Braga, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.