Estoril vs Guimaraes: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Estoril. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guimaraes wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estoril vs Guimaraes?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Estoril (1,998) and Guimaraes (2,095).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estoril vs Guimaraes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estoril
4-2-3-1- 14Y. Begraoui
- 12João Carvalho
- 10J. Holsgrove
- 44M. Robin
- 5A. Tsoungui
- 7André Lacximicant
- 2Ricard Sánchez
- 21R. Jurišić
- 6Xavi Sintes
- 15Isma Sierra
- 1Joel Robles
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 44L. Doucet
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 17Miguel Nogueira
- 13João Mendes
- 28Thiago Balieiro
- 23T. Strata
- 21T. Borevković
- 48O. Zych
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estoril have 0 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats; Guimaraes have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Estoril wins, 0 draws, 4 Guimaraes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Estoril 4-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Guimaraes 3-2 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Estoril 1-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Guimaraes 1-0 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Estoril 1-3 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Guimaraes 3-2 Estoril | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Estoril score 0.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Guimaraes | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estoril sit 18th in Primeira Liga (2 points from 8 matches) and Guimaraes sit 15th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
A question about Estoril vs Guimaraes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Guimaraes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Estoril.
- Where and when is Estoril vs Guimaraes played?
- Estoril vs Guimaraes is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.