Nacional vs Benfica: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 86%, against 10% for a draw and 4% for Nacional. The most likely score is 0-3.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs Benfica?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,417 Elo points against 1,967, a 449-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nacional vs Benfica
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nacional
4-2-3-1- 29N. Kader
- 10Daniel Júnior
- 12Song Min-Kyu
- 15C. Labidi
- 20Matchoi Djaló
- 8Miguel Baeza
- 38Zé Vitor
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 21W. Kokolo
- 88Deivison
- 1Renato Bellucci
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 27Rafa
- 18L. Barreiro
- 10H. Sudakov
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 2C. Lenglet
- 24Samuel Soares
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 02:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Benfica have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nacional wins, 1 draw, 5 Benfica wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Benfica 2-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Nacional 1-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Benfica 3-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 19, 2024 | Nacional 0-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2021 | Nacional 1-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 25, 2021 | Benfica 1-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica score 3.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Benfica | 3.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 16th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Benfica sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 4 |
A question about Nacional vs Benfica?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs Benfica?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 86%, against 10% for a draw and 4% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Nacional vs Benfica played?
- Nacional vs Benfica is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.