Scarborough Athletic vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Flamingo Land Stadium, Scarborough, North Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Scarborough Athletic the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Merthyr Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Scarborough Athletic vs Merthyr Town?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Scarborough Athletic (1,830) and Merthyr Town (1,871).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Scarborough Athletic have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Merthyr Town have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chorley(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(home) | 3-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hednesford Town(away) | 4-3 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | South Shields(home) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Harrogate Town(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Scarborough Athletic win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Merthyr Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic 2-1 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Merthyr Town 1-3 Scarborough Athletic | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Scarborough Athletic vs Merthyr Town on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Scarborough Athletic score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough Athletic | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Merthyr Town | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Scarborough Athletic sit 8th in National League - North (6 points from 4 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 12th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Scarborough Athletic | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Merthyr Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Scarborough Athletic vs Merthyr Town?
- The Footlab model makes Scarborough Athletic the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Merthyr Town.
- Where and when is Scarborough Athletic vs Merthyr Town played?
- Scarborough Athletic vs Merthyr Town is played on September 12, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Flamingo Land Stadium, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.