Chernolomets 1919 vs Septemvri Dragoevo: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Stamo Kostov, Popovo
The Footlab model makes Chernolomets 1919 the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Septemvri Dragoevo. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chernolomets 1919 vs Septemvri Dragoevo?
Chernolomets 1919 starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,629 vs 1,472).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chernolomets 1919 have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Septemvri Dragoevo have 1, 0 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Dorostol(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Volov Shumen(away) | 0-5 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
How many goals should we expect?
Chernolomets 1919 score 2.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Dragoevo score 4.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chernolomets 1919 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Septemvri Dragoevo | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chernolomets 1919 sit 9th in Third League - Northeast (1 points from 1 matches) and Septemvri Dragoevo sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Septemvri Dragoevo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Chernolomets 1919 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chernolomets 1919 vs Septemvri Dragoevo?
- The Footlab model makes Chernolomets 1919 the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Septemvri Dragoevo.
- Where and when is Chernolomets 1919 vs Septemvri Dragoevo played?
- Chernolomets 1919 vs Septemvri Dragoevo is played on November 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Stamo Kostov, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.