Fratria II vs Chernomorets Balchik: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 14Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Staro Oryahovo, Staro Oryahovo
The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 89%, against 8% for a draw and 3% for Fratria II. The most likely score is 0-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fratria II vs Chernomorets Balchik?
Chernomorets Balchik is a heavy favourite: 1,772 Elo points against 1,279 — a 494-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fratria II have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Chernomorets Balchik have 13, 2 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(home) | 3-6 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Volov Shumen(home) | 0-7 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Aksakovo(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(away) | 0-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Aksakovo(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(away) | 4-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(home) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Fratria II win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Chernomorets Balchik win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik 3-0 Fratria II | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Fratria II 0-1 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| May 11, 2025 | Fratria II 0-3 Chernomorets Balchik | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Chernomorets Balchik 2-2 Fratria II | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Chernomorets Balchik vs Fratria II on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fratria II score 1.5 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Chernomorets Balchik score 2.9 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratria II | 1.5 | 2.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Chernomorets Balchik | 2.9 | 0.3 | 11 | 4/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fratria II sit 15th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Chernomorets Balchik sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chernomorets Balchik | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Fratria II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fratria II vs Chernomorets Balchik?
- The Footlab model makes Chernomorets Balchik the favourite at 89%, against 8% for a draw and 3% for Fratria II.
- Where and when is Fratria II vs Chernomorets Balchik played?
- Fratria II vs Chernomorets Balchik is played on November 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Staro Oryahovo, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.