Serrano RJ vs Campo Grande: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Atílio Marotti, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Campo Grande the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Serrano RJ. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serrano RJ vs Campo Grande?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Serrano RJ (1,617) and Campo Grande (1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serrano RJ have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Campo Grande have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | América RJ(away) | 0-5 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(home) | 0-3 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(away) | 2-3 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Resende(away) | 0-0 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(home) | 0-0 | Copa Rio |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Petrópolis(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Nova Cidade(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Carapebus(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Niteroiense(home) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Paduano(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Serrano RJ win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Campo Grande win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2025 | Campo Grande 1-1 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 22, 2022 | Serrano RJ 2-0 Campo Grande | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 2, 2021 | Serrano RJ 2-1 Campo Grande | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Campo Grande vs Serrano RJ on Sep 7, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Serrano RJ score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Campo Grande score 0.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serrano RJ | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Campo Grande | 0.7 | 0.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Serrano RJ sit 3rd in Carioca - 2 (18 points from 11 matches) and Campo Grande sit 8th (15 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 18 |
| 8 | Campo Grande | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serrano RJ vs Campo Grande?
- The Footlab model makes Campo Grande the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Serrano RJ.
- Where and when is Serrano RJ vs Campo Grande played?
- Serrano RJ vs Campo Grande is played on September 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Atílio Marotti, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.