Carapebus vs São Cristóvão RJ: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Antonio Gomes Viana, Carapebus, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes São Cristóvão RJ the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Carapebus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carapebus vs São Cristóvão RJ?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Carapebus (1,562) and São Cristóvão RJ (1,618).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carapebus have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; São Cristóvão RJ have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Campo Grande(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Artsul(away) | 1-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Serrano RJ(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | CEAC / Araruama(away) | 1-1 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | CEAC / Araruama(home) | 0-0 | Copa Rio |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Serrano RJ(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Serrano RJ(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Artsul(away) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Carapebus win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 São Cristóvão RJ win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Carapebus 0-2 São Cristóvão RJ | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Carapebus vs São Cristóvão RJ on Oct 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Carapebus score 0.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; São Cristóvão RJ score 1.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carapebus | 0.5 | 1.3 | 6 | 3/15 | 3/15 |
| São Cristóvão RJ | 1.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carapebus sit 10th in Carioca - 2 (12 points from 11 matches) and São Cristóvão RJ sit 2nd (19 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | São Cristóvão RJ | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 19 |
| 10 | Carapebus | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carapebus vs São Cristóvão RJ?
- The Footlab model makes São Cristóvão RJ the favourite at 42%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Carapebus.
- Where and when is Carapebus vs São Cristóvão RJ played?
- Carapebus vs São Cristóvão RJ is played on September 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Antonio Gomes Viana, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.