Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Arena Lviv, Lviv
The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Karpaty. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty?
Shakhtar Donetsk starts as the favourite with a 184-point Elo edge (2,090 vs 1,906).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shakhtar Donetsk have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Karpaty have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Kudrivka(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bursaspor(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bukovyna(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Veres Rivne(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Shakhtar Donetsk win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Karpaty win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Karpaty 3-3 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Karpaty 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2019 | Karpaty 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2019 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Karpaty | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shakhtar Donetsk score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Karpaty score 2.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Karpaty | 2.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 2nd in Premier League (9 points from 3 matches) and Karpaty sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Karpaty.
- Where and when is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty played?
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Lviv, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.