Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Arena Lviv, Lviv
The Footlab AI model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Karpaty. The most likely score is 1-1. If Shakhtar Donetsk wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,197 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty?
Shakhtar Donetsk starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (2,176 vs 1,986).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Shakhtar Donetsk
4-3-2-1- 2L. Traoré
- 29E. Nazaryna
- 6Marlon Gomes
- 30Alisson Santana
- 27O. Ocheretko
- 77G. Mendoza
- 22M. Matvienko
- 13Pedrinho
- 5V. Bondar
- 17Vinícius Tobias
- 31D. Riznyk
Karpaty
4-3-2-1- 26Y. Kostenko
- 8A. Chachua
- 70Xeber Alkain
- 17R. Vantukh
- 31N. Rusyn
- 10Moha
- 4V. Baboglo
- 14Iván Calero
- 73R. Lyakh
- 55T. Stetskov
- 80R. Mysak
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 09:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shakhtar Donetsk have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Karpaty have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(home) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Zorya Luhansk(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Inter(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2026 | Kudrivka(home) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Oleksandria(home) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Chornomorets(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Shakhtar Donetsk wins, 2 draws, 0 Karpaty wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Karpaty 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Karpaty 3-3 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Karpaty 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2019 | Karpaty 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shakhtar Donetsk score 1.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Karpaty score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 1.7 | 0.5 | 8 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| Karpaty | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shakhtar Donetsk sit 1st in Premier League (29 points from 12 matches) and Karpaty sit 5th (19 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 29 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 8 | 19 |
A question about Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty?
- The Footlab AI model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Karpaty.
- Where and when is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty played?
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Lviv, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.