Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ukraina, Lviv
The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Karpaty. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk starts as the favourite with a 184-point Elo edge (2,082 vs 1,898).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karpaty have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Shakhtar Donetsk have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bukovyna(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Veres Rivne(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Kudrivka(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bursaspor(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Karpaty win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Shakhtar Donetsk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Karpaty 3-3 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Karpaty 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2019 | Karpaty 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2019 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Karpaty | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Karpaty on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Karpaty score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Shakhtar Donetsk score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karpaty | 2.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Karpaty sit 1st in Premier League (9 points from 3 matches) and Shakhtar Donetsk sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Karpaty.
- Where and when is Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?
- Karpaty vs Shakhtar Donetsk is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ukraina, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.