Shatin vs Hong Kong FC: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Ma On Shan Recreation Ground, Hong Kong
The Footlab model makes Shatin the favourite at 56%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for Hong Kong FC. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shatin vs Hong Kong FC?
Shatin starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,358 vs 1,205).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shatin have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Hong Kong FC have 2, 1 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Eastern(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Tung Sing(away) | 0-0 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sham Shui Po(home) | 0-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 Sing(home) | 1-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Lucky Mile(away) | 6-3 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southern District(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Kowloon City(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | BC Rangers(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| May 3, 2026 | Southern District(home) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Eastern District(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Shatin win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Hong Kong FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2021 | Hong Kong FC 3-0 Shatin | HKFA 1st Division |
| Sep 29, 2019 | Shatin 3-4 Hong Kong FC | HKFA 1st Division |
| Mar 6, 2016 | Shatin 1-0 Hong Kong FC | HKFA 1st Division |
| Oct 18, 2015 | Hong Kong FC 6-1 Shatin | HKFA 1st Division |
| Apr 19, 2015 | Shatin 2-2 Hong Kong FC | HKFA 1st Division |
| Oct 18, 2014 | Hong Kong FC 3-1 Shatin | HKFA 1st Division |
Last archived meeting: Hong Kong FC vs Shatin on Jun 13, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Shatin score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Hong Kong FC score 1.0 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shatin | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Hong Kong FC | 1.0 | 2.7 | 0 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hong Kong FC | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 60 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shatin vs Hong Kong FC?
- The Footlab model makes Shatin the favourite at 56%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for Hong Kong FC.
- Where and when is Shatin vs Hong Kong FC played?
- Shatin vs Hong Kong FC is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Ma On Shan Recreation Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.