Shkendija vs Vardar Skopje: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Ecolog Arena, Tetovo
The Footlab model makes Shkendija the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Vardar Skopje. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shkendija vs Vardar Skopje?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Shkendija (1,826) and Vardar Skopje (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shkendija have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Vardar Skopje have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Struga(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bregalnica Štip(home) | 4-1 | First League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Hibernian(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vardar Skopje(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Hibernian(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Sileks(home) | 4-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Struga(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shkendija(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Riga(away) | 2-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bregalnica Štip(home) | 2-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Shkendija win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Vardar Skopje win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vardar Skopje 0-2 Shkendija | First League |
| May 23, 2026 | Vardar Skopje 3-0 Shkendija | First League |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Vardar Skopje 0-1 Shkendija | First League |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Shkendija 0-1 Vardar Skopje | First League |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Vardar Skopje 1-1 Shkendija | First League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Vardar Skopje 1-2 Shkendija | First League |
Last archived meeting: Vardar Skopje vs Shkendija on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shkendija score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Vardar Skopje score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shkendija | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
| Vardar Skopje | 2.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shkendija sit 1st in First League (12 points from 4 matches) and Vardar Skopje sit 6th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shkendija | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Vardar Skopje | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shkendija vs Vardar Skopje?
- The Footlab model makes Shkendija the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Vardar Skopje.
- Where and when is Shkendija vs Vardar Skopje played?
- Shkendija vs Vardar Skopje is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Ecolog Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.