Vardar Skopje vs Tikveš: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Toše Proeski Arena, Skopje
The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Tikveš. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vardar Skopje vs Tikveš?
Vardar Skopje starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,775 vs 1,622).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vardar Skopje have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Tikveš have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Sileks(home) | 4-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Struga(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shkendija(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Riga(away) | 2-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bregalnica Štip(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Skopje(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shkëndija Haraçinë(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bashkimi Kumanovo(away) | 5-0 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Aresimi(home) | 5-1 | First League |
| May 25, 2026 | FK Rabotnicki(away) | 3-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Vardar Skopje win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Tikveš win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vardar Skopje 7-0 Tikveš | First League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Vardar Skopje 3-1 Tikveš | First League |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Tikveš 1-2 Vardar Skopje | First League |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Vardar Skopje 2-2 Tikveš | First League |
| Dec 3, 2024 | Vardar Skopje 1-1 Tikveš | First League |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Vardar Skopje 2-0 Tikveš | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Vardar Skopje vs Tikveš on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vardar Skopje score 2.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tikveš score 2.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vardar Skopje | 2.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Tikveš | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vardar Skopje sit 6th in First League (6 points from 4 matches) and Tikveš sit 2nd (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tikveš | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Vardar Skopje | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vardar Skopje vs Tikveš?
- The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Tikveš.
- Where and when is Vardar Skopje vs Tikveš played?
- Vardar Skopje vs Tikveš is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Toše Proeski Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.