Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chełmianka Chełm: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 25Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion OSiR Wisła, Tarnobrzeg
The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chełmianka Chełm?
Chełmianka Chełm starts as the favourite with a 212-point Elo edge (1,926 vs 1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Siarka Tarnobrzeg have 1 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Chełmianka Chełm have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(away) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Jarosław(home) | 1-3 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Busko-Zdroj(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Czarni Połaniec(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Hetman Zamosc(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naprzód(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisłoka Dębica(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moravia Morawica(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Chełmianka Chełm win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg 0-2 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Chełmianka Chełm 2-0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Chełmianka Chełm 5-4 Siarka Tarnobrzeg | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2-1 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg 5-3 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Chełmianka Chełm 1-0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg | III Liga - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chełmianka Chełm on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Siarka Tarnobrzeg score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Chełmianka Chełm score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Chełmianka Chełm | 2.1 | 0.9 | 8 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Siarka Tarnobrzeg sit 16th in III Liga - Group 4 (4 points from 5 matches) and Chełmianka Chełm sit 1st (15 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chełmianka Chełm?
- The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg.
- Where and when is Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chełmianka Chełm played?
- Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chełmianka Chełm is played on April 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion OSiR Wisła, in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 3, 2027KSZO 1929vsWisła Kraków II
- Apr 3, 2027Hetman ZamoscvsNaprzód
- Apr 3, 2027Wisłoka DębicavsStar Starachowice
- Apr 3, 2027Czarni PołaniecvsMoravia Morawica
- Apr 3, 2027JarosławvsWiślanie Jaśkowice
- Apr 3, 2027Sokół Kolb.vsKorona Kielce II
- Apr 3, 2027KS Wieczysta Krakow IIvsPodlasie Biała Podlaska
- Apr 3, 2027Busko-ZdrojvsPogoń-Sokół Lubaczów