Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 26Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion MOSiR, Biała Podlaska
The Footlab model makes Podlasie Biała Podlaska the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Podlasie Biała Podlaska (1,792) and Siarka Tarnobrzeg (1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Podlasie Biała Podlaska have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Siarka Tarnobrzeg have 1, 5 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jarosław(away) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Busko-Zdroj(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Czarni Połaniec(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hetman Zamosc(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | KSZO 1929(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(away) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Jarosław(home) | 1-3 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Busko-Zdroj(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Czarni Połaniec(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Hetman Zamosc(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Podlasie Biała Podlaska win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2-2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1-2 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2025 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2-2 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 0-1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1-4 Siarka Tarnobrzeg | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg 0-2 Podlasie Biała Podlaska | III Liga - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Podlasie Biała Podlaska score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Siarka Tarnobrzeg score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Podlasie Biała Podlaska sit 8th in III Liga - Group 4 (7 points from 5 matches) and Siarka Tarnobrzeg sit 16th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
- The Footlab model makes Podlasie Biała Podlaska the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg.
- Where and when is Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg played?
- Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg is played on April 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion MOSiR, in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 10, 2027Chełmianka ChełmvsKSZO 1929
- Apr 10, 2027Korona Kielce IIvsWisłoka Dębica
- Apr 10, 2027Wiślanie JaśkowicevsSokół Kolb.
- Apr 10, 2027Star StarachowicevsKS Wieczysta Krakow II
- Apr 10, 2027Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówvsJarosław
- Apr 10, 2027Wisła Kraków IIvsHetman Zamosc
- Apr 10, 2027NaprzódvsCzarni Połaniec
- Apr 10, 2027Moravia MorawicavsBusko-Zdroj