Chełmianka Chełm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Chełm
The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chełmianka Chełm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
Chełmianka Chełm starts as the favourite with a 212-point Elo edge (1,926 vs 1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chełmianka Chełm have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Siarka Tarnobrzeg have 1, 5 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naprzód(away) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Wisłoka Dębica(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moravia Morawica(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(home) | 2-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sokół Kolb.(away) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Jarosław(home) | 1-3 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Busko-Zdroj(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Czarni Połaniec(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Hetman Zamosc(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Chełmianka Chełm win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg 0-2 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Chełmianka Chełm 2-0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Chełmianka Chełm 5-4 Siarka Tarnobrzeg | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2-1 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg 5-3 Chełmianka Chełm | III Liga - Group 4 |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Chełmianka Chełm 1-0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg | III Liga - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Chełmianka Chełm on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chełmianka Chełm score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Siarka Tarnobrzeg score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chełmianka Chełm | 2.1 | 0.9 | 8 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chełmianka Chełm sit 1st in III Liga - Group 4 (15 points from 5 matches) and Siarka Tarnobrzeg sit 16th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chełmianka Chełm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?
- The Footlab model makes Chełmianka Chełm the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg.
- Where and when is Chełmianka Chełm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg played?
- Chełmianka Chełm vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg is played on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the III Liga - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026Korona Kielce IIvsSokół Kolb.
- Sep 12, 2026Podlasie Biała PodlaskavsKS Wieczysta Krakow II
- Sep 12, 2026Wiślanie JaśkowicevsJarosław
- Sep 12, 2026Star StarachowicevsWisłoka Dębica
- Sep 12, 2026Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówvsBusko-Zdroj
- Sep 12, 2026Wisła Kraków IIvsKSZO 1929
- Sep 12, 2026NaprzódvsHetman Zamosc
- Sep 12, 2026Moravia MorawicavsCzarni Połaniec