Southampton vs Burnley: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 9, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Burnley. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,937 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs Burnley?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (2,124 vs 1,956).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Southampton vs Burnley
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 9C. Larin
- 10F. Azaz
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 7Léo Scienza
- 4F. Downes
- 26Cameron Bragg
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 5J. Stephens
- 14J. Bree
- 3R. Manning
- 1Daniel Peretz
Burnley
4-2-3-1- 9J. Vardy
- 29J. Laurent
- 3Max Alleyne
- 19L. Ramazani
- 7J. Bruun Larsen
- 5R. Hatate
- 44Igor
- 2K. Walker
- 23Lucas Pires
- 15A. Ahmedhodžić
- 37G. Coudert
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 03:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Burnley have 1, 8 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Watford(away) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Southampton wins, 1 draw, 3 Burnley wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | Southampton 0-1 Burnley | FA Cup |
| Apr 21, 2022 | Burnley 2-0 Southampton | Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2021 | Southampton 2-2 Burnley | Premier League |
| Apr 4, 2021 | Southampton 3-2 Burnley | Premier League |
| Sep 26, 2020 | Burnley 0-1 Southampton | Premier League |
| Feb 15, 2020 | Southampton 1-2 Burnley | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Burnley on Feb 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Burnley score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 1.8 | 1.0 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Burnley | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 8th in Championship (17 points from 11 matches) and Burnley sit 22nd (8 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 17 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 8 |
A question about Southampton vs Burnley?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Burnley?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Burnley.
- Where and when is Southampton vs Burnley played?
- Southampton vs Burnley is played on December 9, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.