Cardiff vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 21Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Cardiff City Stadium, Caerdydd
The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Cardiff. The most likely score is 1-1. If Southampton wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,805 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cardiff vs Southampton?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Cardiff (2,015) and Southampton (2,081).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cardiff vs Southampton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cardiff
4-2-3-1- 8J. Moylan
- 18A. Robertson
- 11O. Tanner
- 27J. Colwill
- 45Cian Ashford
- 16C. Willock
- 3J. Bagan
- 4G. Osho
- 38P. Ng
- 5K. Bielik
- 1N. Trott
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 9C. Larin
- 10F. Azaz
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 7Léo Scienza
- 4F. Downes
- 26Cameron Bragg
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 5J. Stephens
- 14J. Bree
- 3R. Manning
- 1Daniel Peretz
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 10:48 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Southampton have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Watford(home) | 5-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cardiff wins, 0 draws, 3 Southampton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2024 | Cardiff 3-5 Southampton | League Cup |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Cardiff 2-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Southampton 2-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| Jul 27, 2021 | Cardiff 0-4 Southampton | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 9, 2019 | Southampton 1-2 Cardiff | Premier League |
| Dec 8, 2018 | Cardiff 1-0 Southampton | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Cardiff vs Southampton on Aug 28, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Cardiff score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 1.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
| Southampton | 1.8 | 1.0 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cardiff sit 19th in Championship (11 points from 11 matches) and Southampton sit 7th (17 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 17 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 11 |
A question about Cardiff vs Southampton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cardiff vs Southampton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Cardiff.
- Where and when is Cardiff vs Southampton played?
- Cardiff vs Southampton is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Cardiff City Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.