Southampton vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Middlesbrough. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (2,034 vs 1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Middlesbrough have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Southampton win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Middlesbrough win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| May 9, 2026 | Middlesbrough 0-0 Southampton | Championship |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Middlesbrough 4-0 Southampton | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Middlesbrough 2-1 Southampton | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Middlesbrough on May 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 24th in Championship (-1 points from 2 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Middlesbrough.
- Where and when is Southampton vs Middlesbrough played?
- Southampton vs Middlesbrough is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.