Southampton vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Middlesbrough. The most likely score is 1-1. If Southampton wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Southampton (2,114) and Middlesbrough (2,044).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Southampton
4-2-3-1- 9C. Larin
- 7Léo Scienza
- 4F. Downes
- 10F. Azaz
- 30J. Ward-Prowse
- 26Cameron Bragg
- 14J. Bree
- 13K. Schlotterbeck
- 3R. Manning
- 5J. Stephens
- 1Daniel Peretz
Middlesbrough
3-4-2-1- 7W. Lankshear
- 2C. Brittain
- 10A. Morris
- 11A. Cozier-Duberry
- 30Neto Borges
- 6S. Berhalter
- 8R. McGree
- 29A. Malanda
- 4A. Phillips
- 12L. Ayling
- 1R. Vítek
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:44 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southampton have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Middlesbrough have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Lincoln(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 4-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Southampton win, 3 draws, 2 Middlesbrough wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| May 9, 2026 | Middlesbrough 0-0 Southampton | Championship |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Middlesbrough 4-0 Southampton | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Middlesbrough 2-1 Southampton | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Southampton vs Middlesbrough on May 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Southampton score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 2.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southampton sit 13th in Championship (13 points from 9 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 2nd (21 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 13 |
A question about Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab AI model makes Southampton the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Middlesbrough.
- Where and when is Southampton vs Middlesbrough played?
- Southampton vs Middlesbrough is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St. Mary's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.