West Ham vs Stoke City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)London Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win West Ham vs Stoke City?
West Ham starts as the favourite with a 280-point Elo edge (2,068 vs 1,788).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, West Ham have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Stoke City have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Magdeburg(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Southampton(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 West Ham win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Stoke City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2018 | West Ham 1-1 Stoke City | Premier League |
| Dec 16, 2017 | Stoke City 0-3 West Ham | Premier League |
| Apr 29, 2017 | Stoke City 0-0 West Ham | Premier League |
| Nov 5, 2016 | West Ham 1-1 Stoke City | Premier League |
| May 15, 2016 | Stoke City 2-1 West Ham | Premier League |
| Dec 12, 2015 | West Ham 0-0 Stoke City | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: West Ham vs Stoke City on Apr 16, 2018
How many goals should we expect?
West Ham score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Stoke City score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Stoke City | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
West Ham sit 17th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and Stoke City sit 21st (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | West Ham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 21 | Stoke City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for West Ham vs Stoke City?
- The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is West Ham vs Stoke City played?
- West Ham vs Stoke City is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at London Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.