Sparta Praha vs Pardubice: prediction and stats
Czech LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)epet ARENA, Praha
The Footlab model makes Sparta Praha the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Pardubice. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Praha vs Pardubice?
Sparta Praha starts as the favourite with a 209-point Elo edge (2,079 vs 1,870).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Praha have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Pardubice have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Artis(away) | 4-0 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Teplice(home) | 4-1 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lyon(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mlada Boleslav(away) | 0-2 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sigma Olomouc(away) | 1-3 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mlada Boleslav(home) | 1-1 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Slavia Praha(away) | 1-2 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FK Jablonec(home) | 0-2 | Czech Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Hradec Králové(away) | 1-2 | Czech Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Sparta Praha win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Pardubice win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | Sparta Praha 2-4 Pardubice | Czech Liga |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Pardubice 1-3 Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Pardubice 1-2 Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
| Jul 19, 2024 | Sparta Praha 2-1 Pardubice | Czech Liga |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Pardubice 1-2 Sparta Praha | Czech Liga |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Sparta Praha 5-2 Pardubice | Czech Liga |
Last archived meeting: Sparta Praha vs Pardubice on Nov 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Praha score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Pardubice score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Praha | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Pardubice | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Praha sit 5th in Czech Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Pardubice sit 13th (1 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sparta Praha | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
| 13 | Pardubice | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Praha vs Pardubice?
- The Footlab model makes Sparta Praha the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Pardubice.
- Where and when is Sparta Praha vs Pardubice played?
- Sparta Praha vs Pardubice is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at epet ARENA, in the Czech Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.