Spartak Moscow vs Fakel: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Lukoil Arena, Moskva
The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Fakel. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
Spartak Moscow starts as the favourite with a 251-point Elo edge (2,099 vs 1,848).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Moscow have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Fakel have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Zenit(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Baltika(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 5-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akhmat(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Spartak Moscow win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Fakel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2025 | Fakel 0-0 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Spartak Moscow 3-0 Fakel | Premier League |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Spartak Moscow 0-2 Fakel | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Fakel 2-0 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Spartak Moscow 3-2 Fakel | Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Fakel 1-2 Spartak Moscow | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Fakel vs Spartak Moscow on May 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Moscow score 1.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Fakel score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Moscow | 1.6 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Fakel | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Moscow sit 2nd in Premier League (12 points from 5 matches) and Fakel sit 15th (2 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 15 | Fakel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Fakel.
- Where and when is Spartak Moscow vs Fakel played?
- Spartak Moscow vs Fakel is played on September 16, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Lukoil Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.