Where and when is Sporting JAX vs Lexington played?

Sporting JAX vs Lexington is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC), in the USL Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Sporting JAX vs Lexington: prediction and stats

USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 5, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)

Sporting JAX

Lexington

The Footlab model makes Lexington the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Sporting JAX. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sporting JAX vs Lexington?

Lexington starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,749 vs 1,619).

Sporting JAX win21 %

Draw22 %

Lexington win57 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting JAX have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Lexington have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sporting JAX
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Birmingham Legion(away)	3-2	USL Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Indy Eleven(home)	0-1	USL Championship
Aug 2, 2026	Sacramento Republic(away)	0-5	USL Championship
Jul 26, 2026	El Paso Locomotive(away)	0-2	USL Championship
Jul 18, 2026	Brooklyn(home)	2-2	USL Championship

Lexington
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Las Vegas Lights(home)	2-0	USL Championship
Aug 16, 2026	Sacramento Republic(away)	0-1	USL Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Phoenix Rising(home)	1-0	USL Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Monterey Bay(home)	3-2	USL Championship
Jul 26, 2026	FC Tulsa(away)	0-0	USL Championship

How many goals should we expect?

Sporting JAX score 1.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lexington score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Sporting JAX	1.5	2.5	1	10/15	10/15
Lexington	1.7	1.2	6	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Sporting JAX sit 13th in USL Championship (3 points from 13 matches) and Lexington sit 8th (15 points from 12 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Lexington	20	9	4	7	30	23	31
8	Lexington	12	4	3	5	17	15	15
13	Sporting JAX	13	0	3	10	15	34	3
13	Sporting JAX	21	2	5	14	26	54	11

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sporting JAX vs Lexington?: The Footlab model makes Lexington the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Sporting JAX.
Where and when is Sporting JAX vs Lexington played?: Sporting JAX vs Lexington is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC), in the USL Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.