Sporting Lieşti vs Dunarea Calarasi: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 4Group 4 - 16Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Comunal, Lieşti
The Footlab model makes Sporting Lieşti the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Dunarea Calarasi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting Lieşti vs Dunarea Calarasi?
Sporting Lieşti starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (1,596 vs 1,449).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting Lieşti have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Dunarea Calarasi have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | USV Iaşi(away) | 2-1 | Cupa României |
| Aug 12, 2026 | CSM Adjud(away) | 4-2 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Unirea Braniştea(away) | 4-2 | Cupa României |
| May 23, 2026 | Stiinta Miroslava(away) | 3-2 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Viitorul Onesti(home) | 2-0 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | CS Afumati(home) | 0-3 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Înainte Modelu(home) | 2-0 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gloria Băneasa(away) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| May 22, 2026 | Flacăra Moreni(home) | 2-7 | Liga III - Play-offs |
| May 16, 2026 | Ştefăneşti(away) | 1-3 | Liga III - Play-offs |
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting Lieşti score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Dunarea Calarasi score 1.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lieşti | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Dunarea Calarasi | 1.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting Lieşti vs Dunarea Calarasi?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting Lieşti the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Dunarea Calarasi.
- Where and when is Sporting Lieşti vs Dunarea Calarasi played?
- Sporting Lieşti vs Dunarea Calarasi is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Comunal, in the Liga III - Serie 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.