Fossombrone vs Santegidiese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, Fossombrone
The Footlab AI model makes Fossombrone the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Santegidiese. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fossombrone wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,695 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fossombrone vs Santegidiese?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Fossombrone (1,669) and Santegidiese (1,677).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fossombrone vs Santegidiese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fossombrone
Not enough data to predict the Fossombrone lineup.
Santegidiese
Not enough data to predict the Santegidiese lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 04:31 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fossombrone have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Santegidiese have 1, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vigor Senigallia(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | L'Aquila(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Real Giulianova(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Maceratese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Angelana(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Notaresco(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
How many goals should we expect?
Fossombrone score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Santegidiese score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fossombrone | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Santegidiese | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1 | 4/6 | 2/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fossombrone sit 8th in Serie D - Girone F (13 points from 8 matches) and Santegidiese sit 11th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fossombrone | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 13 |
| 11 | Santegidiese | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
A question about Fossombrone vs Santegidiese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fossombrone vs Santegidiese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fossombrone the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Santegidiese.
- Where and when is Fossombrone vs Santegidiese played?
- Fossombrone vs Santegidiese is played on November 8, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Fossombrone, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.