ST Johnstone vs Falkirk: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)McDiarmid Park, Perth
The Footlab model makes ST Johnstone the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Falkirk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ST Johnstone vs Falkirk?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate ST Johnstone (1,922) and Falkirk (1,888).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ST Johnstone have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Falkirk have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | ST Mirren(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kilmarnock(home) | 4-3 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | East Fife(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Morton(home) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Motherwell(away) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 1, 2026 | ST Mirren(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Stranraer(home) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Genk(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 ST Johnstone win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Falkirk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-1 Falkirk | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2018 | ST Johnstone 1-0 Falkirk | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: ST Johnstone vs Falkirk on Jul 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
ST Johnstone score 2.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Falkirk score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone | 2.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Falkirk | 1.3 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ST Johnstone sit 6th in Premiership (3 points from 2 matches) and Falkirk sit 10th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ST Johnstone vs Falkirk?
- The Footlab model makes ST Johnstone the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Falkirk.
- Where and when is ST Johnstone vs Falkirk played?
- ST Johnstone vs Falkirk is played on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at McDiarmid Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.