Where and when is St. Louis City vs Toronto FC played?

St. Louis City vs Toronto FC is played on September 20, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at CITYPARK, in the Major League Soccer.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

St. Louis City vs Toronto FC: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)CITYPARK, St. Louis, Missouri

St. Louis City

Toronto FC

The Footlab model makes St. Louis City the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Toronto FC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?

A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate St. Louis City (1,831) and Toronto FC (1,753).

St. Louis City win59 %

Draw23 %

Toronto FC win18 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, St. Louis City have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Toronto FC have 1, 8 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

St. Louis City
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 20, 2026	Sporting Kansas City(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 16, 2026	San Jose Earthquakes(away)	3-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 2, 2026	Real Salt Lake(home)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 26, 2026	Colorado Rapids(home)	1-0	Major League Soccer
Jul 23, 2026	Los Angeles Galaxy(away)	3-1	Major League Soccer

Toronto FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Charlotte(home)	3-3	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	New England Revolution(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 31, 2026	New York City FC(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	DC United(away)	1-2	Major League Soccer
Jul 22, 2026	New England Revolution(away)	0-0	Major League Soccer

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 1 St. Louis City win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Toronto FC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 8, 2023	Toronto FC 0-1 St. Louis City	Major League Soccer

Last archived meeting: Toronto FC vs St. Louis City on Jul 8, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

St. Louis City score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Toronto FC score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
St. Louis City	1.7	1.3	3	11/15	9/15
Toronto FC	1.4	1.9	2	13/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

St. Louis City sit 6th in Major League Soccer (30 points from 20 matches) and Toronto FC sit 11th (21 points from 20 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	St. Louis City	20	8	6	6	28	26	30
11	Toronto FC	20	4	9	7	29	36	21

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for St. Louis City vs Toronto FC?: The Footlab model makes St. Louis City the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Toronto FC.
Where and when is St. Louis City vs Toronto FC played?: St. Louis City vs Toronto FC is played on September 20, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at CITYPARK, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.