Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Stade Hédi-Enneifer, Le Bardo
The Footlab model makes Stade Tunisien the favourite at 45%, against 35% for a draw and 20% for ES Zarzis. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Stade Tunisien (1,896) and ES Zarzis (1,852).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stade Tunisien have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; ES Zarzis have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 13, 2026 | AS Gabes(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | US Ben Guerdane(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Club Africain(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Olympique Béja(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| May 24, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 20, 2026 | CA Bizertin(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| May 13, 2026 | CA Bizertin(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Stade Tunisien win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 ES Zarzis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | ES Zarzis 0-0 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Stade Tunisien 3-0 ES Zarzis | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Stade Tunisien 1-1 ES Zarzis | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 1, 2024 | ES Zarzis 1-1 Stade Tunisien | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 20, 2024 | ES Zarzis 0-3 Stade Tunisien | Cup |
| Oct 2, 2021 | Stade Tunisien 0-1 ES Zarzis | Ligue 2 |
Last archived meeting: ES Zarzis vs Stade Tunisien on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stade Tunisien score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; ES Zarzis score 1.0 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 23% probability of over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Tunisien | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| ES Zarzis | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stade Tunisien sit 8th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and ES Zarzis sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ES Zarzis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Stade Tunisien | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis?
- The Footlab model makes Stade Tunisien the favourite at 45%, against 35% for a draw and 20% for ES Zarzis.
- Where and when is Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis played?
- Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Hédi-Enneifer, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 23% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.