ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar, Hammam-Sousse
The Footlab model makes ES Hammam-Sousse the favourite at 44%, against 33% for a draw and 23% for US Ben Guerdane. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate ES Hammam-Sousse (1,732) and US Ben Guerdane (1,742).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Hammam-Sousse have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; US Ben Guerdane have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | US Monastirienne(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 29, 2026 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer(home) | 2-3 | Ligue 2 |
| May 11, 2026 | CS Hammam-Lif(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| May 1, 2026 | Sfax Railways(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Kerkennah(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Stade Tunisien(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | AS Soliman(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | US Monastirienne(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 ES Hammam-Sousse win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 US Ben Guerdane win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2022 | ES Hammam-Sousse 1-1 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 18, 2021 | US Ben Guerdane 2-1 ES Hammam-Sousse | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane on Apr 10, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
ES Hammam-Sousse score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; US Ben Guerdane score 0.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 28% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Hammam-Sousse | 1.7 | 0.7 | 9 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| US Ben Guerdane | 0.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 2/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
- The Footlab model makes ES Hammam-Sousse the favourite at 44%, against 33% for a draw and 23% for US Ben Guerdane.
- Where and when is ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane played?
- ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Municipale Bou Ali-Lahouar, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 28% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.