ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Stade Municipal de Métlaoui, Métlaoui
The Footlab model calls this one tight: 34% for ES Metlaoui, 36% for a draw, 30% for ES Zarzis. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate ES Metlaoui (1,772) and ES Zarzis (1,856).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Metlaoui have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; ES Zarzis have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Africain(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| May 14, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | US Monastirienne(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Olympique Béja(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| May 24, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 20, 2026 | CA Bizertin(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| May 13, 2026 | CA Bizertin(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 ES Metlaoui win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 ES Zarzis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | ES Zarzis 1-0 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | ES Metlaoui 0-0 ES Zarzis | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | ES Metlaoui 0-2 ES Zarzis | Cup |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ES Metlaoui 1-0 ES Zarzis | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | ES Zarzis 1-0 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| May 26, 2022 | ES Metlaoui 1-0 ES Zarzis | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: ES Zarzis vs ES Metlaoui on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ES Metlaoui score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; ES Zarzis score 1.0 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 24% probability of over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Metlaoui | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| ES Zarzis | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Metlaoui sit 15th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and ES Zarzis sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ES Zarzis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis?
- The Footlab model calls this one tight: 34% for ES Metlaoui, 36% for a draw, 30% for ES Zarzis.
- Where and when is ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis played?
- ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Municipal de Métlaoui, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 24% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.