Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir
The Footlab model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 45%, against 32% for a draw and 23% for Inverness CT. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Stenhousemuir (1,814) and Inverness CT (1,824).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stenhousemuir have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Inverness CT have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Morton(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 0-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Partick(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 2-6 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arbroath(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Morton(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Stenhousemuir win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Inverness CT win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Stenhousemuir 1-1 Inverness CT | League One |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Inverness CT 1-1 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Inverness CT 1-0 Stenhousemuir | Challenge Cup |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Stenhousemuir 1-0 Inverness CT | League One |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Inverness CT 1-2 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Stenhousemuir 1-1 Inverness CT | League One |
Last archived meeting: Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stenhousemuir score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Inverness CT score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Inverness CT | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stenhousemuir sit 1st in Championship (7 points from 3 matches) and Inverness CT sit 7th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT?
- The Footlab model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 45%, against 32% for a draw and 23% for Inverness CT.
- Where and when is Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT played?
- Stenhousemuir vs Inverness CT is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ochilview Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.