Where and when is Stockton Town vs Bury played?

Stockton Town vs Bury is played on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Map Group UK Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Stockton Town vs Bury: prediction and stats

Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The Map Group UK Stadium, Stockton-on-Tees

Stockton Town

Bury

The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Stockton Town. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Stockton Town vs Bury?

Bury starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,897 vs 1,782).

Stockton Town win30 %

Draw27 %

Bury win42 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stockton Town have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Bury have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Stockton Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Alfreton Town(home)	2-0	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 18, 2026	Gainsborough Trinity(away)	1-4	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 15, 2026	Leek Town(home)	1-1	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 11, 2026	Ashton United(home)	0-1	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 8, 2026	Ilkeston Town(away)	0-1	Non League Premier - Northern

Bury
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Gainsborough Trinity(away)	1-0	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 18, 2026	Guiseley AFC(away)	2-3	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 15, 2026	Rylands(home)	1-0	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 11, 2026	Curzon Ashton(home)	3-2	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 8, 2026	Redcar Athletic(away)	0-0	Non League Premier - Northern

How many goals should we expect?

Stockton Town score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Bury score 2.0 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Stockton Town	0.9	1.4	3	7/15	5/15
Bury	2.0	0.8	6	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Stockton Town sit 17th in Non League Premier - Northern (4 points from 5 matches) and Bury sit 7th (10 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Bury	5	3	1	1	7	5	10
17	Stockton Town	5	1	1	3	4	7	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Stockton Town vs Bury?: The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Stockton Town.
Where and when is Stockton Town vs Bury played?: Stockton Town vs Bury is played on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The Map Group UK Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.