Ilkeston Town vs Guiseley AFC: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)New Manor Ground, Ilkeston, Derbyshire
The Footlab model makes Guiseley AFC the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Ilkeston Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ilkeston Town vs Guiseley AFC?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Ilkeston Town (1,732) and Guiseley AFC (1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ilkeston Town have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Guiseley AFC have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cleethorpes Town(home) | 0-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Warrington Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Whitby Town(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stockton Town(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Curzon Ashton(away) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Bury(home) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Workington(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Whitby Town(away) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Warrington Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ilkeston Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Guiseley AFC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Ilkeston Town 1-0 Guiseley AFC | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Guiseley AFC 1-4 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Guiseley AFC 1-1 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Ilkeston Town 1-1 Guiseley AFC | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Guiseley AFC 1-2 Ilkeston Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Nov 28, 2023 | Ilkeston Town 1-4 Guiseley AFC | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Ilkeston Town vs Guiseley AFC on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ilkeston Town score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Guiseley AFC score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilkeston Town | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Guiseley AFC | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ilkeston Town sit 13th in Non League Premier - Northern (6 points from 5 matches) and Guiseley AFC sit 6th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Guiseley AFC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 13 | Ilkeston Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ilkeston Town vs Guiseley AFC?
- The Footlab model makes Guiseley AFC the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Ilkeston Town.
- Where and when is Ilkeston Town vs Guiseley AFC played?
- Ilkeston Town vs Guiseley AFC is played on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at New Manor Ground, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.